Vintage 101: 2026 Expectations
Howdy folks! It's time yet again for another edition of Vintage 101! I'm your host, Joe Dyer, and this week we're going to be putting the wrap on 2025 and looking ahead to 2026. This article will release on January 1st, so HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone who reads. In addition we have the final Challenge events of 2025 to reflect upon.
Without further ado, let's dive right in!
Reflections on 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026
2025 was certainly a year for Vintage. One of the major things for this format in 2025 was that this was a year in which no changes were made to Vintage via a BnR Announcement. No cards were restricted or unrestricted in Vintage in 2025. And honestly, I don't think there needed to be. This year looked great for Vintage overall from a format health standpoint, and so many good cards were introduced to the format via Standard sets and not direct to format sets like Horizons sets.
2025's sets functionally redefined Vintage in many ways, but not to an extreme to where the format needed to be touched by Wizards with a Restriction. I view this very much as a good thing. Vintage has had a tumultuous few years with things like Lurrus being banned and unbanned from 2020-2022, Modern Horizons 3 pushing things with Vexing Bauble, and even something as firmly innocuous as Stickers/Attractions being fully banned, so it's nice to have a year where the format can breathe.
We had three incredibly interesting and solid Eternal Weekend events this year, which showcased just how much fun and interesting Vintage is as a format. This continued to further the notion that Vintage is ultimately an exceptionally healthy format right now.
So what's next? What do we have in store for 2026?
Honestly, I am hoping for a lot more of the same. There's a large amount of sets coming through Standard this coming year, from a return to the beloved plane of Lorwyn to dives into the world of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Marvel Super Heroes, but realistically, I think the sets to keep an eye on for Vintage are going to be the in-universe sets.
Primarily that is Lorwyn Eclipsed, Secrets of Strixhaven, and Reality Fracture. Of those sets, I think the one I want to keep an eye on the most for something to impact Vintage will be Reality Fracture. I have heard a lot of chatter of this being something of a Future Sight-esque style set, and in general, sets like that tend to have a lot of layers of playable cards in them.
While we are getting a lot more Universes Beyond sets this coming year, and there is potential for The Hobbit to have a card or two (or maybe even just good reprints of cards that need it like The One Ring), but I feel that 2025 showed us that the sets that are really getting pushed are the in-Universe sets. Most of 2025's best playables (cards like Stock Up) came from an in-universe set, and I expect that trend to continue.
One thing I would like is some more push to have permanents that create a tension for people choosing to play Lurrus or not as a Companion. Lurrus is very popular, and there are numerous good reasons to play it. I'd love to continue to see designs that push people to decide to not play Lurrus more. I'd much rather do that at this point than take any sort of ban action against Lurrus because it has proven to be a fairly healthy aspect in Vintage.
Another thing I think I would like to see for 2026 is an unrestriction of some kind. I don't think these are off the table, and I wouldn't want to do it to shake things up, but I like the idea of following the trends and seeing if an unrestriction could boost an archetype or two. Personally I think it would be fun to see a Channel unrestriction. That one seems kind of fun.
What are you looking forward to in 2026? Any cool cards or ideas you'd like to see explored? Any unrestrictions? Let me know in the comments below.
Vintage Challenge 32 12/25/2025
The first Challenge event of last week was the Thursday event. This event had 45 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Both Initiative and Dimir Lurrus were well played here, and both had pretty good win rates. Esper Lurrus did exceedingly well, as did Raker Shops. Oath and Lurrus PO didn't look too hot.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Esper Lurrus | 1st | AlpInco |
| Dimir Lurrus | 2nd | WLS |
| Initiative | 3rd | sokos13 |
| Raker Shops | 4th | luvadepedreiro |
| Raker Shops | 5th | mRichi |
| Esper Lurrus | 6th | CrazyDiamond513 |
| Dimir Lurrus | 7th | MATTOMARINAIO |
| Dredge | 8th | SuperCow12653 |
Fair bit of both Lurrus and Shops. At the end of the event it was Esper Lurrus that won.
Not a ton of frills here, realistically. This is about as straightforward as it gets. It is pretty cool to see like almost a playset of Spell Pierce.
In Second Place we had Dimir Lurrus.
This is also rather straightforward, but it does have one of my favorite cards in Momentum Breaker. That card is really cool and actually makes Lurrus pretty interesting.
Vintage Challenge 32 12/26/2025
The second Challenge event of last week was the Friday event. This event had 43 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Raker Shops was the most played deck, and it had a slightly lower than 50% win rate despite putting two copies in the Top 8. Initiative, Doomsday, and Oath were all big winners here, while Dredge did not do well.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Initiative | 1st | RPSbonjwa |
| Dimir Lurrus | 2nd | jake-upLVT |
| Tinker | 3rd | TrueHero |
| Raker Shops | 4th | lucadepedreiro |
| Raker Shops | 5th | crK |
| Oath | 6th | etoustar |
| Initiative | 7th | bernardocssa |
| Lurrus Doomsday | 8th | Shuichi_Saito |
Mainly Raker, Initiative, and Lurrus here. At the end of the event, it was Initiative that won.
Light of Day is such a banger of a sideboard card, my word. Just casually make your opponent's EVERYTHING be unable to attack or black because nearly every good creature in Lurrus is black (Frog, Bowmasters, Lurrus, etc.). That is just absolutely stunning. It also kinda beats up on most Dredge creatures outside of Hollow One.
In Second Place, we had Dimir Lurrus.
THREE Mana Drain is something here. That's really going deep, and I do think it showcases how good Drain is into Stock Up. It's kinda cool to have a world where Drain is again a good Vintage card.
Vintage Challenge 32 12/27/2025
The third Challenge event of last week was the Saturday event. This event had 58 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Initiative was the most played deck of the event, but despite putting three in the Top 8 it had a slightly lower than 50% win rate. Dimir Lurrus and Jewel Shops both looked to do well.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Doomsday | 1st | Enrichetta |
| Initiative | 2nd | SFDK |
| Dimir Lurrus | 3rd | Schiaveto |
| Lurrus PO | 4th | Miharu_Fuyumiya |
| Initiative | 5th | MayhemDJ |
| Sphere Shops | 6th | RingoDeathStarr |
| Sphere Shops | 7th | almana3 |
| Initiative | 8th | VitorCarvalho01 |
Fair bit of Initiative, along with some Shops. At the end of the event however, it was Doomsday that won.
Fairly standard-looking non-Lurrus Doomsday list here. No sideboard juke, even for switching more into a Tempo/Control strategy.
In Second Place, we had Initiative.
This is functionally the same list that won the previous event. I still think Void Mirror is a big trap here.
Vintage Challenge 32 12/28/2025
The final Challenge event of 2025 was the Sunday event. This event had 41 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find all of the decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dimir Lurrus was the most played deck and it had a lower than 50% win rate. Raker Shops, Esper Lurrus, and Sphere Shops all did very well. Initiative didn't do so good despite a Top 8 appearance.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Raker Shops | 1st | bless_von |
| Esper Lurrus | 2nd | John1111 |
| Initiative | 3rd | ipbanned |
| Lurrus Breach | 4th | MultiformatSuperstar |
| Esper Lurrus | 5th | DrPP |
| Lurrus PO | 6th | Kenzaburo |
| Sphere Shops | 7th | _Chamytinho_ |
| Raker Shops | 8th | musasabi |
This is a pretty varied Top 8 here. At the end of the event, it was Raker Shops that won.
This is a fairly straightforward Raker list. No real frills or anything.
In Second Place we had Esper Lurrus.
Pretty stock list here. I don't see anything here super spicy.
Around the Web
- Justin Gennari always has some stuff for us:
- Revenantkioku has some stuff for us too:
- Kindamtg is doing some Reanimator. Check it out here.
- Play to Win is doing Vintage for the Holidays. Check it out here.
The Spice Corner
Scam with Mai!
Azorius Lurrus!
Wrapping Up
That's all the time we have this week folks! Thanks for your continued support of the column and join me next week as we continue our journey into Vintage!
As always you can reach me at my Link Tree! In addition you can always reach me on the MTGGoldfish Discord Server and the Vintage Streamers Discord.
Until next time!
